Results of the IEER SME Outlook Survey January 2015

The HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) SME Outlook business climate survey in January 2015 shows that after the decline observed in the previous quarter the level of business confidence improved again. The Business Climate Index rose to 16 points from the 9 points measured in October. The index is also higher than it was in last January (9 points). The Uncertainty Index is at 35 points level, which is one point lower than its value in October, so the uncertainty seems to stagnate. The 35 points level is slightly higher than the level measured last year (33 points in January 2014), but lower than the level measured two years ago (41 points in January, 2013). The value of the Uncertainty Index suggests that the current tendency is not universal and that it only concerns a part of the business community, others do not perceive it yet.

The following brief analysis examines what factors local businesses consider as their performance and success. The analysis was based on the database of the IEER April 2014 Business Climate Survey, which is Hungary’s largest company-wide survey of its kind. The April survey is based on the responses of 2,606 company executives. The sample was made up of 58% micro enterprises (less than 10 people), 17% of small businesses (between 10-49 persons), 16% of medium-sized enterprises (between 50-249 persons), and 10% of large enterprises (250 persons and above). Thus, our study primarily applies to micro-enterprises.

Our results show that the majority of domestic enterprises are proud of the positive characteristics (e.g. quality, uniqueness) of their products and services. The second most common response was that entrepreneurs considered the very survival of their company as a major success. A majority of respondents were proud that they managed to retain customers or attract new ones, and the fact that customers were satisfied with their work. Nearly one in ten respondents pointed out that they managed to maintain or increase staff numbers. Also, nearly one-tenth of interviewees viewed as one of their major achievements the fact that revenue remained the same or even increased.

The wage compensation policy helped to offset the negative effect on employment of expected wage increases. The IEER study presents the effects on employment due to the legislative changes of 2012 using data from the National Labour Centre’s Wage Survey and the Hungarian Labor Market Forecast.

The following brief analysis summarizes the characteristics (economic sector, company size, ownership structure and region) of firms with student apprentices contracted for training purposes. In addition, we present the recruitment intentions of the above mentioned companies for 2015 as well, from which the trend in the demand for apprentices can be inferred. The research is based on data from the 2010-2014 IEER Short-term labor market forecast study, which annually contains information from about 7,000 companies.

Based on these results, we can say that most of the firms with student apprentices contracted for training purposes are industrial companies. In addition, a relatively large number of apprentices are employed by companies that do not have foreign capital or which are located in the central region of Hungary. Results on recruitment intentions indicate that most firms with student apprentices contracted for training purposes don’t plan to change their employee numbers in 2015, therefore it is expected that the demand for student apprentices is not going to change either. Among those companies planning recruitment changes, the percentage of those that plan to increase staff is higher than those contemplating a reduction in every year between 2010 and 2014.

The following summary comprises the latest results gained from the largest representative survey series on the Hungarian labor market. During the study 7179 company leaders’ answers on employment, on the company’s business situation, and on the company’s future expectations were registered and analyzed. The history of the survey series targeting short-term expectations of the labor market goes back to the years following the regime change of 1989-90 in Hungary. The latest survey in this research program took place between September and October, 2014 as the seventh occasion of the collaboration between the Hungarian Ministry for National Economy and the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) to forecast the short-term economic prospects of the private sector, and to review corporations’ labor market decisions in an empirical study.

October 2014 was the thirty-fourth occasion of the business climate survey of HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER), which is Hungary’s largest business climate survey. This year's October survey is based on the responses of 2,853 company managers. The survey results show the business situation and the short-term expectations of managers. The following analysis summarizes the results of the October survey based on a representative sample by economic sectors, regions and number of employees. Compared to the 2012 recession the results confirm that in 2014 a turnaround occurred and a further improvement of the business climate is anticipated. The Hungarian firms’ business expectations improved once again after the rise of last year, indicating a more favourable business climate compared to the previous half year.

Results of the IEER Quarterly Business Climate Survey October 2014

Since 2010 the IEER assesses on a quarterly basis the business expectations of Hungarian enterprises using a sample of 400 companies. In October 2014, the survey showed that the level of business confidence deteriorated sharply compared to the previous quarter. This severed the improving trend observed since October last year. The IEER Quarterly Business Climate indicators in July fell from 18 points to 10 points, but was still higher than the level measured a year ago (in October 2013 it was 5 points). The value of the Uncertainty Index was at a 35-point level, which conforms to the value in July. This suggests that the deterioration in business expectations is not universal and that it only concerns a part of the business community.

The latest study from HCCI IEER examined the predictive strength of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). Concerning the direction of change of industrial production, PMI forecasts are more accurate in the case of growth while in the case of decline its forecasts are less accurate. However when examining the extent of changes, it can be seen that t+3 months changes in the values of industrial production are significantly connected to the changes in the PMI.

Results of the IEER SME Outlook Survey October 2014

The HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) SME Outlook business climate survey in October 2014 shows that the level of business confidence declined significantly compared to the previous quarter. The Business Climate Index declined to 9 points from the 18 points measured in July. This severed the improving trend observed since the beginning of 2014. However, it is important to note that the index is still significantly higher than it was last year in the same period (2 points). The Uncertainty Index is at 36 points level, which is one point lower than its value in July, so the uncertainty seems to stagnate after the increase in the beginning of the year. The 36 points level is slightly higher than the level measured last year (31 points in October 2013), but lower than the level measured two years ago (44 points in October, 2012). This suggests that the deterioration in business expectations is not universal and that it only concerns a part of the business community.

The latest GVI study examined the predictive ability of the Purchasing Managers Index. PMI forecasts are more accurate in forecasting a growth in industrial production volume as opposed to a decline. However, upon examining the extent of these changes, a significant correlation can be seen in the changes to the PMI and changes in industrial production three months later.