The IEER have been preparing forecasts of registered job-seekers for several months. In the last three months we have noticed that the forecasts have begun to show larger estimation errors than normal and as expected. For a quick analysis, we set as a goal to demonstrate this phenomenon and investigate its possible causes. Our goal was to explore the causes and, where possible, to find how we can improve forecasting accuracy.

Rather sectorial benefits

The HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research conducted a survey in 2013 to size up how the Hungarian enterprises conceive the proposed free-trade agreement between the USA and the European Union. A significant part of the respondents think that the emergence of the agreement will less affect their own companies, however it will have more positive effects on the economic sector they operate in.

The research program "Vocational schools" by IEER conducted since 2008 includes two main parts. The aim of the company survey is to map the demand of specific segments in the business sector for vocational school graduates within one year and beyond a three-year time span.
The survey on graduates examines the beginning of the working life of those young people who obtained their qualifications in vocational schools or trade schools 19 months before. The research has a focus point on whether these young people were able or willing to enter the labour market during the 19 months after their graduation.

According to the latest study of IEER, making the right choice of skills that meets the personal interests of the student improves the career prospects of qualified vocational school graduates. In addition, good academic results, the knowledge of foreign languages and matriculation also helps skilled young people to succeed in the labour market. In the case of becoming unemployed the effect of family background is important, whilst this risk can be reduced by ambitions for further education, foreign language skills, acquiring good academic results, finishing secondary school with a final exam, and making the right career choice. Further education after learning a profession is beneficial - in the short term it means higher wages, while for the long-term it translates into more stable employment. The acquisition of functional literacy, foreign languages, and study skills is therefore very important for the future success of skilled workers in the labour market.

The results of the latest SME Outlook survey reveal more favourable expectations compared to the previous quarter: the SME Outlook Business Climate Index increased from 2 points to 9 points, surpassing the level of January 2013 (7 points). The value of the SME Outlook Uncertainty Index compared to the previous quarter is similar, it increased from 31 to 33 points. These values are notably lower than we found earlier in the course of the SME Outlook Business Climate Survey. This result implies that there is a decrease in the diversity of opinions on views toward the current and expected business situation of enterprises, however the perceptions of the trends are still not clear or uniform within the SMEs.

The IEER estimates that in January 2014 the number of registered job seekers is expected to increase by about 52 thousand people. This increase is greater than what would be the seasonal effect.

Since 2010 the HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) has been conducting a business climate survey on a quarterly basis, the seventeenth taking place in January of this year. In this survey 400 company managers reported on the current and expected business climate. The results of the January 2014 survey indicate that compared to the previous quarter business confidence improved among Hungarian companies.

The IEER estimates that in December 2013 the number of registered job seekers is expected to increase by some 1.6 thousand people. Based on seasonally adjusted data, we estimate a 6.8 thousand person increase in the number of registered jobseekers as compared to the level in November.

In 2013 the HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) prepared a survey commissioned by the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry regarding the planned free trade agreement between the EU and the U.S. The research gauged the opinion of Hungarian companies toward the free trade agreement. The planned treaty is a bilateral trade agreement between the European Union and the United States to dismantle existing trade barriers and to harmonize a variety of technical, engineering, and legal regulations. During the survey, 242 companies completed the questionnaire online and 231 companies were queried over the phone by staff appointed by the IEER. Thus, the sample comprises a total of 473 companies.

In the following analysis we focus on how opinions toward the free trade agreement (FTA) are formed at companies with import and/or export activities as well as those with or without any existing connection to the U.S. The results show that a relatively broad range of companies are familiar with the proposed free trade agreement: 57% of respondents have heard about it. In the case of implementation of the convention, companies are of the view that its effects will be felt more at the relevant corporate sector level as opposed to directly in the case of their own business. Both at the corporate sector and the individual levels, most companies do not think that the convention will have either an overly positive or negative effect. Companies with interests in the US are dominated by positive expectations at both the corporate sector and individual levels; this group contains less of those that are uncertain, those who feel they are unaffected by the agreement, and those that count on negative consequences. The latter results, however, cannot be generalized because of the small number of cases, and thus must be regarded with reservation.

The results of the latest quarterly business climate survey reveal more favourable expectations compared to the previous quarter: the IEER Quarterly Business Climate Index increased from 5 points to 8 points, what is close to the level of January 2013 (9 points). The value of the Uncertainty Index compared to the previous quarter is similar, it increased from 31 to 32 points. These values are notably lower than we found earlier in the course of the IEER Business Climate Survey. This result implies that there is a decrease in the diversity of opinions on views toward the current and expected business situation of enterprises, however the perceptions of the trends are still not clear or uniform within the business sector.