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1 of September, 2011Research year: 2011
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

July 2011 marked the seventh occasion of the MKIK Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) quarterly business climate survey. This study involves 400 listed companies involved in manufacturing, construction and services, which are representative of Hungary's economic performance and sector distribution, and is done on a quarterly basis.

According to the results from the July 2011 survey, the business climate indicators pertaining to the current situation of Hungarian enterprises – with the exception of production level indicators – all showed an increase in July 2011, leaving only a partial indication of the less favourable macroeconomic situation. The short-term expectations of companies, however, show a significant negative shift: with the exception of the expected state of business situation, all other indicators for the next six months fell. As a result, the IEER quarterly Business Climate Index continued to decline in the second quarter after a peak in January, and the Uncertainty Index is in decline compared to the previous quarter.

Looking at the export turnover of businesses it was mostly the exporting firms that showed the highest score in the business climate index. The steady increasing tendency of the index since July 2010, however, turned negative in the summer of 2011. Exporters as well as producers for the domestic market are generally more optimistic in their outlook of their business situation for the next half-year; however, job creation will come from domestic firms only. As for the development of investment activity, the data suggests that it is more likely to decline in the coming months among companies operating in Hungary.

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