Contents:

• Results of the IEER Quarterly Business Climate Survey – July 2017
• Donald Trump’s planned financial deregulation
• International trends

In this brief analysis, the current Russian economic characteristics are demonstrated through macroeconomic indicators, and the Russian-Hungarian trade relations are also examined. The Russian economy had a crisis due to the decline of the oil prices and the sanctions against the country that started in 2014; at the end of 2016 a slow recovery could be observed. The economic performance is still highly dependent on the oil trade which means a risk for the country. Russia’s long-term growth potential regardless of the currently expected short-term boom is not significant, primarily because of the low and decreasing productivity.

The results of the latest IEER SME Outlook business climate survey reveal that the business confidence significantly increased compared to the previous quarter: the Business Climate Index rose from 18 to 24 points. Thus, the decreasing tendency that started in January 2017 has been broken.

This paper examines the level of poverty among Hungarian seventh grade students and its effect on their future education plans. The data is based on the answers to a self-administered questionnaire of more than 9000 students from a research conducted by the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) in 2015. We find that a large group of students are deprived of basic necessities and that poor children plan to finish their studies earlier than non-poor children. Using mixed-effects regression models controlling for other possible factors affecting further education plans we show that the negative effect of poverty is substantial.

The results of the latest quarterly business climate survey reveal favourable economic conditions compared to the previous quarter: the IEER Quarterly Business Climate Index increased from 21 to 32 points. This result indicates that following the decline observed in April 2017, the Business Climate Index returned to the value of around 30 points that had characterised it since January 2016. (The Business Climate Index was 34 points in the same period of the previous year.)