Contents:

• Results of the IEER SME Outlook Survey January 2017

• The risks and possible effects of a U.S.–Chinese trade war

• International trends

The results of the latest IEER SME Outlook business climate survey reveal that the business confidence slightly decreased compared to the previous quarter: the Business Climate Index fell from 28 to 25 points. The value of the index was 25 points in January 2016.

The Uncertainty Index is at a current level of 38 points, which is the same as in the previous quarter. The value of the Uncertainty Index indicates that the current trend is not uniform within the private sector, and that it will continue to be confined to one part of the economy and will not be felt by all small and medium sized companies.

In sum, we can assess that the Business Climate Index after the peak (33 points) in April 2016 dropped to 27 points in July 2016 and it was 28 points in October 2016, now a decrease (25 points) occurred again.

The results of the latest quarterly business climate survey reveal that the economic condition remains the same as that in the previous quarter: the IEER Quarterly Business Climate Index is 30.5 points, and it was 30.4 points in October 2016. The value of the indicator was 30.5 points in July 2016, that is, the last three quarters are characterized by the stagnation of the Business Climate Index. (The Business Climate Index was 31.7 points in the same period of the previous year.)

The Uncertainty Index is at a current level of 36 points, which is slightly higher than in the previous quarter (it was 35 points in October 2016). The value of the Uncertainty Index indicates that the current trend is not uniform within the private sector, and that it will continue to be confined to one part of the economy and will not be felt by all companies.

In sum, we can assess that the level of business climate is still favourable in January 2017, however, there were no improvement compared to October 2016, the value of the index stagnated.

In its analysis the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) examined the perception of labor shortage among Hungarian companies. The analysis is based on the data of the October 2016 Business Climate Survey of 3185 companies among which 2980 answered questions related to recruiting difficulties, and labor and skill shortage. The analysis also covers how recruiting difficulties and expected investments, stock orders, and plans of salary increase are related. The results show that a growing number of Hungarian companies consider recruiting difficulties and labor shortage as an obstacle to business activity and two thirds of them expect that the problems related to this are going to worsen in 2017. The most prevalent problem mentioned by the companies is the recruitment of senior employees. Plans of salary increase and recruiting difficulties are positively related showing that salary increase is a possible way of adaptation to labor shortage among the Hungarian companies.