The estimate of IEER expects the number of registered job seekers to decrease by about 27 thousand people in May 2014.

IEER estimate expects the number of registered job seekers to increase by about 4 thousand people in April 2014. Taking only the seasonal process into account would suggest a decrease of about 10-30 thousand. However there was no seasonal increase observable in the beginning of the winter season as usual (from November to January). This makes understandable the lack of seasonal decrease now.

The IEER have been preparing forecasts of registered job-seekers for several months. In the last three months we have noticed that the forecasts have begun to show larger estimation errors than normal and as expected. For a quick analysis, we set as a goal to demonstrate this phenomenon and investigate its possible causes. Our goal was to explore the causes and, where possible, to find how we can improve forecasting accuracy.

The IEER estimates that in January 2014 the number of registered job seekers is expected to increase by about 52 thousand people. This increase is greater than what would be the seasonal effect.

The IEER estimates that in December 2013 the number of registered job seekers is expected to increase by some 1.6 thousand people. Based on seasonally adjusted data, we estimate a 6.8 thousand person increase in the number of registered jobseekers as compared to the level in November.

Paper written for the CIRET 2012 conference

In this paper we attempt to examine the applicability of Google Insights for Search in terms of household consumption, retail sale trends, and the nowcasting of car sales in Hungary. There have been several successful attempts to use Google data in a similar way, usually in connection with U.S. economic indicators. Our goal, however, is an analysis of consumption indicators on the basis of Internet search in a country where Internet penetration is lagging behind that of the U.S. and Western Europe.