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Tag: monthly bulletin of economic trends
20 of July, 2014Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

What difficulties are facing companies that want to invest in Hungary today? What is the impact on the investment climate of the Growth Loan Program (NHP)? These and other questions are examined in a research conducted by IEER, in which 2,600 company managers were interviewed. The answers showed that the NHP program itself does not increase the appetite for investments, as this program is unable to remedy the negative effects arising from the demand side nor the institutional environment of uncertainty. As far as company managers are concerned, these are the most inhibiting factors.

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20 of June, 2014Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

Monitoring online media can also be used to predict investment activity. A new research by the IEER assessed this possibility. Based on more than 12 thousand articles containing investment-related terms, we determined those types of articles which help us the most to forecast investment activity as a whole and, investment activity of the private sector. In addition to articles on abstract and legal topics, articles from origo.hu and vg.hu deserve special attention in this regard.

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1 of May, 2014Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

"Beyond the second wave of the crisis: improving expectations - decreasing uncertainty" is the title that summarizes the results of the IEER April 2014 Business Climate Survey. The results of the study indicate a strengthening of the positive changes, the business climate indicator increased and reached the level of April 2011. The increase of the index value was derived from the improved expectations of stock orders and business situation of enterprises. These positive changes are accompanied by a low and declining level of investment activity. According to the results, after a long period of stagnation labour demand in the following half year is expected to rise in the Hungarian private sector.

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1 of April, 2014Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

In a recent study by the IEER entitled "Trends and careers in the software industry" the current situation of the software industry is examined. The analysis deals with the question of what trends can be observed in recent and current developments of the sector as well as what changes delegate the likely future orientation of the software industry. In order to achieve our goal it is not only important to deal with regional and global trends, but also to discuss the features and history of some typical companies of the software industry.

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1 of March, 2014Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

According to the latest study of IEER, making the right choice of skills that meets the personal interests of the student improves the career prospects of qualified vocational school graduates. In addition, good academic results, the knowledge of foreign languages and matriculation also helps skilled young people to succeed in the labour market. In the case of becoming unemployed the effect of family background is important, whilst this risk can be reduced by ambitions for further education, foreign language skills, acquiring good academic results, finishing secondary school with a final exam, and making the right career choice. Further education after learning a profession is beneficial - in the short term it means higher wages, while for the long-term it translates into more stable employment. The acquisition of functional literacy, foreign languages, and study skills is therefore very important for the future success of skilled workers in the labour market.

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1 of February, 2014Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

Since 2010 the HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) has been conducting a business climate survey on a quarterly basis, the seventeenth taking place in January of this year. In this survey 400 company managers reported on the current and expected business climate. The results of the January 2014 survey indicate that compared to the previous quarter business confidence improved among Hungarian companies.

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1 of January, 2014Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

In 2013 the HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) prepared a survey commissioned by the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry regarding the planned free trade agreement between the EU and the U.S. The research gauged the opinion of Hungarian companies toward the free trade agreement. The planned treaty is a bilateral trade agreement between the European Union and the United States to dismantle existing trade barriers and to harmonize a variety of technical, engineering, and legal regulations. During the survey, 242 companies completed the questionnaire online and 231 companies were queried over the phone by staff appointed by the IEER. Thus, the sample comprises a total of 473 companies.

In the following analysis we focus on how opinions toward the free trade agreement (FTA) are formed at companies with import and/or export activities as well as those with or without any existing connection to the U.S. The results show that a relatively broad range of companies are familiar with the proposed free trade agreement: 57% of respondents have heard about it. In the case of implementation of the convention, companies are of the view that its effects will be felt more at the relevant corporate sector level as opposed to directly in the case of their own business. Both at the corporate sector and the individual levels, most companies do not think that the convention will have either an overly positive or negative effect. Companies with interests in the US are dominated by positive expectations at both the corporate sector and individual levels; this group contains less of those that are uncertain, those who feel they are unaffected by the agreement, and those that count on negative consequences. The latter results, however, cannot be generalized because of the small number of cases, and thus must be regarded with reservation.

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1 of December, 2013Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

October 2013 was the thirty-sixth occasion of the SME Outlook, a joint research project started by the HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) together with Figyelő (the Monitor) and the Volksbank. The project examine the fiscal situation, prospects and factors affecting the financial position of companies within the Hungarian small and medium enterprise sector. In addition to questions on the business sentiment of enterprises, in each case our analysis looked into current issues and problems, and the corporate responses to these which, in turn, play an important role in this sector's adaptability, profitability and development. For the October 2013 survey 299 company managers replied to our questions over the phone.

Based on the results of the third quarter of 2013, the indicators show a positive image of the current situation of small and medium enterprises. All indicators for the current business situation showed an increase compared to the previous period. In contrast, expectations for the future indicate a negative outlook, as all such indicators fell. Altogether, these contrasting effects led the SME Business Climate Index to fall, thus the significant increase in 2013 reached a negative turning point. The Uncertainty Index decreased compared to the previous period, which represents a decline in the diversity of opinions among SMEs toward their current and expected business situations.

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1 of November, 2013Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

October 2013 was the thirty second instance of the HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) business climate survey in which more than 14,000 companies are examined every year in April and October, with the assistance of regional chambers. In Hungary this is the largest study of its kind. This research is a part of the Eurochambres business climate survey, which is an approximately 14 million enterprise-wide study of European business. In October this year 3,514 companies filled out our questionnaire.

The IEER Business Climate Index rose almost 10 points to +23 points from April's +14 points. This represents a medium-high value; the last time a similar level was reached was in 2010. The value of the Uncertainty Index is also very high at a 55-point level. The latter suggests that within the business community readings of positive trends for the year are still not quite clear or uniform. For many firms the business situation has not improved, and their expectations are not positive. Meanwhile, the available data for the current performance of the Hungarian economy, together with the IEER business climate survey data - amidst a high degree of uncertainty surrounding this year and next - project rising GDP growth rates.

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1 of October, 2013Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

The latest research of IEER examines the territorial inequalities pertaining to various social and economic segments. The social and economic processes which have taken place since the regime change in Hungary are very heterogeneous and often not uniform on a national level. Through the analysis of these processes we try to introduce profiles depicting the social and economic development of Hungary's regions. On the one hand, this involves the evaluation and comparison of the situation among regions; on the other, an examination of internal segmentation, as the regions themselves are not homogeneous. This is best illustrated using the per capita GDP, measured as a percentage of the national average.
Compared to other regions, Central Hungary is characterized by a huge advantage in terms of development; all other regions have a per capita GDP far below the Western European average. The Southern Great Plains region is in a particularly bad state, and within this region Békés County is one of the most backward. Since the regime change, difficult access to local labor markets, low investment rates, low business density, lack of foreign firms, a high (and respectively higher than the national average) unemployment rate, a life expectancy rate lower than the national average, emigration and depopulation, and the deterioration of the relative income of the population are all characteristic of the economic and social situation of Békés county.

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