The latest survey for the annual “Short-term labor market forecast” research project of the Ministry of National Economics and HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) took place in September-October 2015. During the survey county government offices and IEER staff interviewed 7,112 company managers about their current and expected need for labor. The results can be considered representative by the companies’ geographical location and economic sector, and within this by employee numbers. In the following the results of this research are presented compared to other relevant data sources and estimates.

In our following brief analysis we examine for what purposes domestic enterprises generally use the internet. Our analysis is based on data from the business climate survey conducted by the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) in October 2015.

The data show that the highest proportion of firms surveyed use the internet for administration (e.g. the Hungarian version of an electronic civil service portal called “Ugyfelkapu” or “Client Gateway”), email correspondence with customers, and to follow market trends. Just over half of the analyzed companies have their own website, which is explained by the large number of micro businesses employing fewer than 10 people. The computer systems themselves along with the security of the stored information and the modern state of the technology were all regarded to be very important by the companies.

The results of the latest IEER SME Outlook business climate survey reveal more favourable economic conditions compared to the previous quarter: the Business Climate Index increased from 16 to 20 points. This value is far higher than the one in October 2014 (10 points). The Uncertainty Index is at a current level of 38 points, which is higher than in the previous quarter (it was 35 points in July 2015), and the same as the value measured in the preceding quarter. The value of the Uncertainty Index indicates that the current trend is not uniform within the private sector, and that it will continue to be confined to one part of the economy and will not be felt by all small and medium sized companies.

According to the results of the IEER Business Climate Survey, further positive changes can be expected in the business climate of the Hungarian companies. The IEER Business Climate Index rose to +45 points in October 2015 from +42 points in April 2015.

The results of the latest IEER SME Outlook business climate survey reveal a less favourable economic condition compared to the previous quarter: the Business Climate Index decreased from 23 to 16 points. This value is the same that the one measured in January (16 points) and a bit lower than the one in July 2014 (18 points). The Uncertainty Index is at a current level of 35 points, which is lower than in the previous quarter (it was 38 points in April 2015), and is equal to the value measured in the preceding quarter. The value of the Uncertainty Index indicates that the current trend is not uniform within the private sector, and that it will continue to be confined to one part of the economy and will not be felt by all small and medium sized companies.

Only few of the Hungarian high school students intend to attend undergraduate programmes abroad, although their numbers show a growing trend in recent years. This is what IEER research examining the intentions of continuing education reveals, in addition to the fact that the Hungarian school system is unable to overcome the disadvantages caused by family background, that is, promote social mobility. Based on the 2013 National Skills Assessment the best national high schools receive only a very small proportion of students whose father has a low level of education or low labour market status. Our results also suggest that at the post-secondary level the education system reinforces existing inequalities. This can be concluded from the fact that the ratio of students who apply to the prestigious universities in Budapest is significantly lower in the lagging northern and lowland regions (even in the best high schools of these areas) than in the region of Central Hungary. The study was based on 770 responses conducted among the graduate students of thirty Hungarian public high schools, which were the best within their region according to the 2013 National Skills Assessment.

The HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) business climate survey in April 2015 shows that the level of business confidence in Hungary continued to improve compared to that seen in the previous quarter. The IEER Quarterly Business Climate Index has risen from the January level of 16 to 23 points. The current level is the highest since the beginning of the research (January 2005). The current level of the indicator is higher than it was one year earlier. The Uncertainty Index level is at a current level of 38 points, which is three points higher than the level in January; this indicates increase in uncertainty. The current level is the same as the value recorded one year before and higher than the value recorded two years before (in April 2013 it was 37 points). In addition, the value of the Uncertainty Index indicates that the current trend is not uniform within the private sector, and that the recovery will continue to be confined to one part of the economy and will not be felt by all companies.

Results of the IEER SME Outlook Survey January 2015

The HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) SME Outlook business climate survey in January 2015 shows that after the decline observed in the previous quarter the level of business confidence improved again. The Business Climate Index rose to 16 points from the 9 points measured in October. The index is also higher than it was in last January (9 points). The Uncertainty Index is at 35 points level, which is one point lower than its value in October, so the uncertainty seems to stagnate. The 35 points level is slightly higher than the level measured last year (33 points in January 2014), but lower than the level measured two years ago (41 points in January, 2013). The value of the Uncertainty Index suggests that the current tendency is not universal and that it only concerns a part of the business community, others do not perceive it yet.

The following summary comprises the latest results gained from the largest representative survey series on the Hungarian labor market. During the study 7179 company leaders’ answers on employment, on the company’s business situation, and on the company’s future expectations were registered and analyzed. The history of the survey series targeting short-term expectations of the labor market goes back to the years following the regime change of 1989-90 in Hungary. The latest survey in this research program took place between September and October, 2014 as the seventh occasion of the collaboration between the Hungarian Ministry for National Economy and the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) to forecast the short-term economic prospects of the private sector, and to review corporations’ labor market decisions in an empirical study.

Results of the IEER SME Outlook Survey October 2014

The HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) SME Outlook business climate survey in October 2014 shows that the level of business confidence declined significantly compared to the previous quarter. The Business Climate Index declined to 9 points from the 18 points measured in July. This severed the improving trend observed since the beginning of 2014. However, it is important to note that the index is still significantly higher than it was last year in the same period (2 points). The Uncertainty Index is at 36 points level, which is one point lower than its value in July, so the uncertainty seems to stagnate after the increase in the beginning of the year. The 36 points level is slightly higher than the level measured last year (31 points in October 2013), but lower than the level measured two years ago (44 points in October, 2012). This suggests that the deterioration in business expectations is not universal and that it only concerns a part of the business community.