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    Tag: ciret
    12 of July, 2012Research
    Occurence of Economic Terms in the Hungarian Online Media Before and After the Economic Crisis

    Paper written for the CIRET 2012 conference

    The purpose of our study is to find an answer to how real economic processes and their online media representation are connected, that is, whether the economic crisis of 2008-2009 has generally changed the way how Hungarian journalists use economic terms and expressions and whether a learning procedure has begun of a more informed and proficient form of journalism about economic processes.

    Based on our analysis we can state that the occurrence of economic terms in connection with economic policy, foreign trade, companies and the crisis contain a break in the trend at the start of the crisis. We can say that because of the crisis the word usage rates within the above word groups increased significantly – except in the case of the foreign trade group, where it fell.

    We can also say that knowledge of the occurrence of the economic policy, credit, macroeconomy, financial market, company and crisis word groups provide additional information to estimate industrial sales about a month in advance as compared to if we only use the previous two values of the time series for our estimation.

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    22 of May, 2012Research
    Google as a tool for nowcasting household consumption: estimations on Hungarian data

    Paper written for the CIRET 2012 conference

    In this paper we attempt to examine the applicability of Google Insights for Search in terms of household consumption, retail sale trends, and the nowcasting of car sales in Hungary. There have been several successful attempts to use Google data in a similar way, usually in connection with U.S. economic indicators. Our goal, however, is an analysis of consumption indicators on the basis of Internet search in a country where Internet penetration is lagging behind that of the U.S. and Western Europe.

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    20 of October, 2010Research
    Recession: Perspective of Enterprises (March 2010)

    The survey on the perspective of enterprises about the recession had been repeated for the third time by the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research.We provide analysis not only on the general characteristics of enterprises and different indicators of conjecture, but also on borrowings, foreign currency risks and financial disciplines of enterprises and the preventive actions they took in order to avoid the negative effects of the recession. Moreover, we had interest in mapping the internet usage habits at Hungarian enterprises. The three datasets are available free of charge at the following web addresshttp://www.ola.gvi.hu/.

    The results of the analysis revealed that the Hungarian enterprises did not change their developed techniques and actions in order to avoid the negative effects of the recession. Companies with foreign ownership share and export-oriented companies are usually very adaptive to the new conditions than other companies. Also, there is a strong correlation between the business situation and the adaptation skills: the worse the business situation of an enterprise the broader the range of techniques it adapts to avoid the worst case scenario.

    The analysis also reveals that one part of the enterprises were so extensively affected by the recession that they were technically forced to find every possible way to reduce the negative effects. Favorable business situation thereby facilitates long-term strategic planning and action, while bad business situation makes short-term downsizing and production restraint more probable. We also tried to prove our surmise that those companies who use internet actively will be more likely to have a faster recovery from the recession but this hypotheses could not be fully tested and measured by solely relying on data about the business situation of enterprises.

    The findings based on the three datasets were presented in English at CIRET Conference, Economic Tendency Surveys and the Services Sector on the 14thOctober 2010. See also (https://www.ciret.org/conferences/newyork_2010).The analysis, the power point slides and the survey of the research (from March and June) can be found and downloaded in the appendix.

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    16 of November, 2009Research
    Recession: Perspective of Enterprises (June 2009)

    The survey on the perspective of enterprises about the recession had been repeated in June 2009 by Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research.We provide analysis not only on the general characteristics of enterprises and different indicators of conjecture, but also on borrowings, foreign currency risks and financial disciplines of enterprises and the preventive actions they took in order to avoid the negative effects of the recession. The two datasets are available free of charge at the following web addresshttp://www.ola.gvi.hu/.

    The results of the analysis revealed that the Hungarian enterprises take several preventive actions in order to avoid the negative effects of the recession. Companies with foreign ownership share and export-oriented companies are usually very adaptive to the new conditions. The analysis also reveals that one part of the enterprises were so extensively affected by the recession that they were technically forced to find every possible way to reduce the negative effects. This is why those companies who were involved in layoffs, most probably previously tried other ways to avoid the worst case scenario such as part-time working, reducing salary, delaying investments, or downsizing certain services. As such, layoffs and other downsizing programs are in auxiliary connection.

    The key findings of the research were introduced to the public by giving a presentation in English at CIRET/KOF/GK Conference, Workshop on Sentiment Indicators and the Current Crisis on the 9th November 2009. See also: https://www.ciret.org/workshops/budapest/program. The analysis, the power point slides and the survey of the research (from March and June) can be found and downloaded in the appendix.

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