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4 of June, 2015Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

According to the results of the April IEER business sentiment survey, the positive changes observed since April 2013 continued and strengthened: Hungarian entrepreneurs judged their business situation to be better than half a year ago, and business expectations also continued to improve. The 2015 spring survey data suggest that this is in line with European trends: in two key countries for the European economy, Germany and France, business expectations improved in the first quarter of 2015. For our questionnaire in April 2015 a total of 3 614 companies responded.

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30 of April, 2015Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

In the following analysis we examine how domestic businesses assessed various institutions and public offices in terms of efficiency and quality of the services they provide. The analysis is based on the October 2010, July 2014 and January 2015 business climate surveys of the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER). The businesses surveyed believe that in January 2015 the land registry office functioned the most efficiently and the services they provided were of the highest quality; the lowest ratings were given to hospitals. Among educational institutions colleges and universities were rated best by companies, the worst were vocational schools. Among the periods examined, companies evaluated institutions most positively in July 2014. After this the views of businesses typically worsened, and the results of January 2015 have fallen back to 2010 levels.

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27 of March, 2015Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

The joint empirical research of the National Labor Office (NLO) and HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) on the short-term economic outlook and labor market decisions of private sector firms was conducted for the eighth time in September and October 2014. For the latest survey of the Short-term Labor Market Forecast the staff of NLO and IEER interviewed the managers of 7,179 firms about their current and expected demand for labor.

According to the data the Hungarian economy did not reach its pre-crisis level at the end of last year despite the fact that 2014 generated a GDP growth which had not been seen in a long time. The engine of Hungarian industrial growth continued to be industrial exports, especially exports to Germany.

Based on the results of employee number changes, the employment rate has steadily increased in 2014. The number of employees in the private sector has increased in the first and second quarters by 2.3 and 2.8 percent respectively. According to the forecast of IEER, based on the expectations for 2015, the employment index is expected to stagnate. The likely scenario is that in 2015 the number of employees may increase by 1.3 percentage point for the construction sector and 0.9 percentage point for retail. In contrast, a 7.5 percentage point decrease is expected for services while a 9.3 percentage point decline is likely for mainly exporting firms.

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27 of February, 2015Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

Within the framework of the “SME Outlook” research, since January 2005 the HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) conducts a quarterly analysis of the situation of small and medium sized enterprises, their short-term prospects, as well as the economic and institutional factors affecting this business group. For this project a total of 300 companies operating within the fields of manufacturing, construction and services are surveyed and the data is analysed in every quarter. The structure of the sample remains the same from quarter to quarter, with the companies surveyed representing the economic performance and sector distribution of small and medium sized enterprises in Hungary.

On June 1, 2013, the National Bank of Hungary launched the Loans for Growth Program (NHP), albeit the details of the program had been known several months earlier. For the October 2014 SME Outlook survey the leaders of small and medium-sized enterprises were asked about bank loans and the NHP Program by the IEER.

The results show that 56% of small and medium-sized enterprises have some form of bank loan. The most common type of credit is working capital loan (including bank loans). Companies hold mostly forint-denominated loans.

Euro-based loan is the most common foreign currency loan and mainly used by export-oriented companies, companies in the manufacturing sector and medium-sized firms.

Every fifth company among SMEs have applied for loan under the Loans for Growth Program (NHP). More than half of the companies were interested in working capital loans. Every second company applied for a loan up to 50 million forints. The overall opinion of SMEs is that there are no major changes in the terms of access to loans during the period 2013 and 2014.

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30 of January, 2015Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

The following brief analysis examines what factors local businesses consider as their performance and success. The analysis was based on the database of the IEER April 2014 Business Climate Survey, which is Hungary’s largest company-wide survey of its kind. The April survey is based on the responses of 2,606 company executives. The sample was made up of 58% micro enterprises (less than 10 people), 17% of small businesses (between 10-49 persons), 16% of medium-sized enterprises (between 50-249 persons), and 10% of large enterprises (250 persons and above). Thus, our study primarily applies to micro-enterprises.

Our results show that the majority of domestic enterprises are proud of the positive characteristics (e.g. quality, uniqueness) of their products and services. The second most common response was that entrepreneurs considered the very survival of their company as a major success. A majority of respondents were proud that they managed to retain customers or attract new ones, and the fact that customers were satisfied with their work. Nearly one in ten respondents pointed out that they managed to maintain or increase staff numbers. Also, nearly one-tenth of interviewees viewed as one of their major achievements the fact that revenue remained the same or even increased.

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31 of December, 2014Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

The following brief analysis summarizes the characteristics (economic sector, company size, ownership structure and region) of firms with student apprentices contracted for training purposes. In addition, we present the recruitment intentions of the above mentioned companies for 2015 as well, from which the trend in the demand for apprentices can be inferred. The research is based on data from the 2010-2014 IEER Short-term labor market forecast study, which annually contains information from about 7,000 companies.

Based on these results, we can say that most of the firms with student apprentices contracted for training purposes are industrial companies. In addition, a relatively large number of apprentices are employed by companies that do not have foreign capital or which are located in the central region of Hungary. Results on recruitment intentions indicate that most firms with student apprentices contracted for training purposes don’t plan to change their employee numbers in 2015, therefore it is expected that the demand for student apprentices is not going to change either. Among those companies planning recruitment changes, the percentage of those that plan to increase staff is higher than those contemplating a reduction in every year between 2010 and 2014.

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28 of November, 2014Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

October 2014 was the thirty-fourth occasion of the business climate survey of HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER), which is Hungary’s largest business climate survey. This year's October survey is based on the responses of 2,853 company managers. The survey results show the business situation and the short-term expectations of managers. The following analysis summarizes the results of the October survey based on a representative sample by economic sectors, regions and number of employees. Compared to the 2012 recession the results confirm that in 2014 a turnaround occurred and a further improvement of the business climate is anticipated. The Hungarian firms’ business expectations improved once again after the rise of last year, indicating a more favourable business climate compared to the previous half year.

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24 of October, 2014Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

The latest study from HCCI IEER examined the predictive strength of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). Concerning the direction of change of industrial production, PMI forecasts are more accurate in the case of growth while in the case of decline its forecasts are less accurate. However when examining the extent of changes, it can be seen that t+3 months changes in the values of industrial production are significantly connected to the changes in the PMI.

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20 of September, 2014Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

The HCCI Economic and Enterprise Research Institute (GVI) July 2014 edition of SME Perspectives showed that the level of business confidence within the domestic SME sector continued to improve compared to that seen in the previous quarter, thus we have three consecutive quarters in which an improving business climate was detected. Since the indicators showed that business confidence in the second quarter 2014 will continue the improvement apparent since the last quarter of 2013, this represents the best level in the history of the research, that is, the GVI SME Perspectives Business Climate Indicator has reached the best level since 2005. In addition, the uncertainty index value indicates that the current trend is not uniform in the business sector, therefore the recovery will continue to be confined to only one part of the economy and is not apparent for all companies.

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20 of August, 2014Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

The HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) business climate survey in July 2014 shows that the level of business confidence in Hungary continued to improve compared to that seen in the previous quarter, and that for three consecutive quarters a rising business confidence was detected. Since the indicators show that business confidence in the second quarter of 2014 continues the improvement apparent since the last quarter of 2013, it has thus reached the best level in the history of the IEER Quarterly Business Climate Index, that is, since 2010. In addition, the value of the Uncertainty Index indicates that the current trend is not uniform within the private sector, and that the recovery will continue to be confined to one part of the economy and will not be felt by all companies.

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