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9 of February, 2017Research
Results of the IEER SME Outlook Survey January 2017

The results of the latest IEER SME Outlook business climate survey reveal that the business confidence slightly decreased compared to the previous quarter: the Business Climate Index fell from 28 to 25 points. The value of the index was 25 points in January 2016.

The Uncertainty Index is at a current level of 38 points, which is the same as in the previous quarter. The value of the Uncertainty Index indicates that the current trend is not uniform within the private sector, and that it will continue to be confined to one part of the economy and will not be felt by all small and medium sized companies.

In sum, we can assess that the Business Climate Index after the peak (33 points) in April 2016 dropped to 27 points in July 2016 and it was 28 points in October 2016, now a decrease (25 points) occurred again.

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5 of December, 2016Research
Results of the IEER SME Outlook Survey November 2016

The results of the latest IEER SME Outlook business climate survey reveal that the economic condition remains the same as that in the previous quarter: the Business Climate Index increased from 27 to 28 points. This is due to the fact that the vast majority of the sub-indicators stagnated compared to July 2016. Only three sub-indicators moved relative to the previous quarter: the production of level of the previous quarter dropped significantly, however, the expected business situation and the expected profitability slightly increased compared to July.

The Uncertainty Index is at a current level of 38 points, which is 2 point higher than in the previous quarter (it was 33 points in July 2016). The value of the Uncertainty Index indicates that the current trend is not uniform within the private sector, and that it will continue to be confined to one part of the economy and will not be felt by all small and medium sized companies.

In sum, we can assess that the Business Climate Index dropped to 27 points in July 2016 and 28 points in October 2016 compared to the peak of April 2016 (33 points).

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23 of August, 2016Research
Results of the IEER SME Outlook Survey August 2016

The results of the latest IEER SME Outlook business climate survey reveal less favourable economic conditions compared to the previous quarter: the Business Climate Index decreased from 31 to 27 points. Thus the upward trend since last October was broken. While enterprises regard their current situation more favourable compared to the previous quarter, they consider their future prospects more negatively than in April. It means that the SME sector predicts a turning point in the trends of domestic business climate.

The Uncertainty Index is at a current level of 36 points, which is almost the same as the value measured in the preceding quarter (it was 37 points in April 2016). The value of the Uncertainty Index indicates that the current trend is not uniform within the private sector, and that it will continue to be confined to one part of the economy and will not be felt by all small and medium sized companies.

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6 of June, 2016Research
Results of the IEER SME Outlook Survey April 2016

The results of the latest IEER SME Outlook business climate survey reveal more favourable economic conditions compared to the previous quarter: the Business Climate Index increased from 25 to 31 points, which is the highest value since the beginning of the research (January 2005). This value is far higher than the one in April 2015 (23 points). The Uncertainty Index is at a current level of 37 points, which is almost the same as the value measured in the preceding quarter (it was 38 points in April 2015). The value of the Uncertainty Index indicates that the current trend is not uniform within the private sector, and that it will continue to be confined to one part of the economy and will not be felt by all small and medium sized companies.

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15 of February, 2016Research
Results of the IEER SME Outlook Survey January 2016

The results of the latest IEER SME Outlook business climate survey reveal more favourable economic conditions compared to the previous quarter: the Business Climate Index increased from 20 to 25 points, which is the highest value since the beginning of the research (January 2005). This value is far higher than the one in January 2015 (16 points). The Uncertainty Index is at a current level of 37 points, which is almost the same as the value measured in the preceding quarter (it was 38 points in October 2015). The value of the Uncertainty Index indicates that the current trend is not uniform within the private sector, and that it will continue to be confined to one part of the economy and will not be felt by all small and medium sized companies.

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8 of December, 2015Research
Results of the IEER SME Outlook Survey October 2015

The results of the latest IEER SME Outlook business climate survey reveal more favourable economic conditions compared to the previous quarter: the Business Climate Index increased from 16 to 20 points. This value is far higher than the one in October 2014 (10 points). The Uncertainty Index is at a current level of 38 points, which is higher than in the previous quarter (it was 35 points in July 2015), and the same as the value measured in the preceding quarter. The value of the Uncertainty Index indicates that the current trend is not uniform within the private sector, and that it will continue to be confined to one part of the economy and will not be felt by all small and medium sized companies.

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8 of September, 2015Research
Results of the IEER SME Outlook Survey July 2015

The results of the latest IEER SME Outlook business climate survey reveal a less favourable economic condition compared to the previous quarter: the Business Climate Index decreased from 23 to 16 points. This value is the same that the one measured in January (16 points) and a bit lower than the one in July 2014 (18 points). The Uncertainty Index is at a current level of 35 points, which is lower than in the previous quarter (it was 38 points in April 2015), and is equal to the value measured in the preceding quarter. The value of the Uncertainty Index indicates that the current trend is not uniform within the private sector, and that it will continue to be confined to one part of the economy and will not be felt by all small and medium sized companies.

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21 of May, 2015Research
Results of the IEER SME Outlook Survey April 2015 – Improving business climate, favourable outlook

The HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) business climate survey in April 2015 shows that the level of business confidence in Hungary continued to improve compared to that seen in the previous quarter. The IEER Quarterly Business Climate Index has risen from the January level of 16 to 23 points. The current level is the highest since the beginning of the research (January 2005). The current level of the indicator is higher than it was one year earlier. The Uncertainty Index level is at a current level of 38 points, which is three points higher than the level in January; this indicates increase in uncertainty. The current level is the same as the value recorded one year before and higher than the value recorded two years before (in April 2013 it was 37 points). In addition, the value of the Uncertainty Index indicates that the current trend is not uniform within the private sector, and that the recovery will continue to be confined to one part of the economy and will not be felt by all companies.

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20 of April, 2015Research
Results of the IEER SME Outlook (Quarterly 2013-2014) regarding the effect of Funding for Growth Scheme on investment activity of the SME sector

Within the framework of the SME Outlook research, since January 2005 the HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) conducts a quarterly analysis of the situation of small and medium sized enterprises, their short-term prospects, as well as the economic and institutional factors affecting this business group. For this project a total of 300 companies operating within the fields of manufacturing, construction and services are surveyed and the data is analysed in every quarter. The structure of the sample remains the same from quarter to quarter, with the companies surveyed representing the economic performance and sector distribution of small and medium sized enterprises in Hungary.

On June 1, 2013, the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) announced the Funding for Growth Scheme (FGS; in Hungarian: Növekedési Hitelprogram - NHP), the aim of the program was to support small and medium-sized enterprises in accessing forint- denominated loans, to strengthen financial stability, and to reduce external vulnerability of the Hungarian economy. The FGS consists of three pillars. Under the fist pillar the NBH provided collateralized refinancing loans to its monetary policy counterparties up to a total amount of HUF 425 billion. Under the second pillar the NBH provided refinancing loans to convert foreign currency loans of small and medium-sized enterprises into forint loans up to a total amount of HUF 325 billion. (Under the third pillar the NBH helped credit institutions to reduce their external foreign currency liabilities via FX swaps).

In this report we present the results of four SME Outlook quarterly surveys (October 2013, January 2014, April 2014 and October 2014), which covers in totally 1505 small and medium sized enterprises. In those quarterly SME Outlook surveys the leaders of small and medium-sized enterprises were asked about bank loans and the FGS by the HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER).

The results show that nearly 60% of small and medium-sized enterprises had some form of bank loan. The most common type of credits was working capital loan (including bank loans) during each survey period. Results show that companies that export a maximum of 50% of their whole production were the most likely to have a loan, as well as companies with expectation of investment change.

During the four waves of the survey companies hold mostly forint-denominated loans and around 30% of companies had a euro-based loan. Euro-based loan was mainly used by export-oriented companies, manufacture sector companies and medium-sized companies.

Generally every fifth SME applied for loan under the FGS. Over all periods of the survey, investment loans and working capital loans were the most demanded. More and more companies with positive opinion about current business situation were willing to apply for loan under the FGS, while companies with negative opinion were less likely to do so.

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23 of March, 2015Research
Loans and the Loans for Growth Program (NHP) at Hungarian SMEs

Within the framework of the “SME Outlook” research, since January 2005 the HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) conducts a quarterly analysis of the situation of small and medium sized enterprises, their short-term prospects, as well as the economic and institutional factors affecting this business group. For this project a total of 300 companies operating within the fields of manufacturing, construction and services are surveyed and the data is analysed in every quarter. The structure of the sample remains the same from quarter to quarter, with the companies surveyed representing the economic performance and sector distribution of small and medium sized enterprises in Hungary.

On June 1, 2013, the National Bank of Hungary launched the Loans for Growth Program (NHP), albeit the details of the program had been known several months earlier. For the October 2014 SME Outlook survey the leaders of small and medium-sized enterprises were asked about bank loans and the NHP Program by the IEER.

The results show that 56% of small and medium-sized enterprises have some form of bank loan. The most common type of credit is working capital loan (including bank loans). Companies hold mostly forint-denominated loans.

Euro-based loan is the most common foreign currency loan and mainly used by export-oriented companies, companies in the manufacturing sector and medium-sized firms.

Every fifth company among SMEs have applied for loan under the Loans for Growth Program (NHP). More than half of the companies were interested in working capital loans. Every second company applied for a loan up to 50 million forints. The overall opinion of SMEs is that there are no major changes in the terms of access to loans during the period 2013 and 2014.

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