Within the framework of the research program on vocational schools started by the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and IEER in 2008, we explore on an annual basis the corporate demand for, and labour market situation of, skilled graduates, the employment opportunities available, as well as views about their vocation and jobs. The fourth such student survey was carried out in 2012 which was done using a questionnaire survey of 1,872 students. Based on data from this year's research, the career beginnings on the labour market of trade school or vocational education graduates from the summer of 2011 – that is, youths who acquired a profession – is examined. The analysis seeks to discover, above all, that nine months after acquiring their qualifications were these graduates able to – or inclined to – enter the labour market, as well as were they able to find employment within their profession. The study was limited to a number of skills that were subsidized in several regions of Hungary as well as professions involved in the research from previous years.

The following study, prepared under the auspices of the IEER ad-hoc business climate research project, proposes to answer the question of how economic processes can affect the appearance of this topic in the mass media. In our research, we examined whether the 2008-09 economic crisis changed the way in which Hungarian journalists used terms, employed new terms in the daily press, or went through a learning process which revealed a more informed and attentive form of journalism regarding economic processes and their relationships.

The results show that the economic crisis changed the vocabulary in use by Hungarian online media: during the crisis and the years since, economic subjects received more attention than before 2008. Terms related to economic policy, corporate topics, and the financial crisis increased significantly, while in the case of the foreign trade word group, this change was negative. Along these lines, it can be said that the economic crisis represented a real break point regarding the occurrence of economic issues in the media.

Paper written for the CIRET 2012 conference

In this paper we attempt to examine the applicability of Google Insights for Search in terms of household consumption, retail sale trends, and the nowcasting of car sales in Hungary. There have been several successful attempts to use Google data in a similar way, usually in connection with U.S. economic indicators. Our goal, however, is an analysis of consumption indicators on the basis of Internet search in a country where Internet penetration is lagging behind that of the U.S. and Western Europe.

One aspect of the IEER ad hoc business climate research project is an attempt to examine the applicability of Google Insights for Search to study household consumption, the progress of retail sales turnover, and current car sales trends in Hungary. There have been several successful attempts to use Google data in a similar fashion, usually in connection with U.S. economic indicators. Our goal, however, is to analyse the consumption indicators based on Internet search traffic in a country where Internet penetration lags behind U.S. and Western European levels.

Our results show that Google can also be a useful tool for estimating present consumption patterns in a country where Internet use is less prevalent compared to developed countries. For retail and car sales, as well as household consumption, we found that the indicators based on Google performed well in providing trend estimates for the given reference time series.

In January 2005 the Figyelő, the MKIK Economic and Business Research Institute (IEER), and the Volksbank jointly launched research into the business situation of small and medium sized enterprises, along with an investigation into their short term expectations as well as an assessment of the economic and institutional factors affecting their business situation. Our analysis is based on the quarterly survey results of a total of 300 companies operating within the manufacturing, construction and services sectors. The structure from quarter to quarter remains the same and is representative of the economic performance and sector distribution of companies operating in Hungary.

The latest results show that almost one-third of business partners from the small and medium sized enterprises surveyed regularly paid late: in January 2012 the average rate of partners paying late compared to the previous six months was 32%, that is, this rate has declined since July 2011. The full value of late payments comes out to be 33% of total sales, so overall we can say that the breadth and depth of late payments at the beginning of 2012 was less than that of the previous half year.

We found that there was a significant increase in the past year of those small and medium enterprises negatively affected by the economic crisis. While in January 2012 34% of companies felt that the crisis will have a major or at least significant effect on their business situation over the next six months, in January 2011 23% of SMEs felt this way, whereas two years ago this was 27%; in other words, the impact of the economic crisis among businesses has once again increased.

Based on the responses of firms in 2011 the gross wages paid to employees increased by an average of 3.8%. Taking into account the 3.9% annual inflation rate from the Central Statistical Office (KSH) for the year 2011, the real wages of employees within the SME sector fell minimally last year. According to our recent survey results CEOs are planning to increase gross wages in 2012 by an average of 5.7%.

January 2012 was the ninth occasion of the IEER quarterly business climate survey. In this analysis, on a quarterly basis, we engaged in a total of 400 firms in the manufacturing, construction, and service industries being representative of the economic performance and sector distribution of companies operating in Hungary.

The January 2012 survey showed that all the business climate indicators related to the current state of business of Hungarian firms fell in the last quarter of 2011, following a less favourable macroeconomic situation. The short-term expectations of companies, however, show a significant positive change: with the exception of expected investment activity, all indicators rose for the next half year. As a result, the quarterly GVI Business Climate Index increased in the last quarter 2011, while the Uncertainty Index declined compared to the previous quarter.

A somewhat more favourable expected business situation for the next six months was observed compared to the previous quarter: 26% of firms count on a good business situation, while 17% say it will be bad. Expected production level indicators for the next half year were higher than the previous quarter. As for employee numbers over the next half year, businesses can count on the positive trends observed in the previous quarter to continue, especially among companies producing for the domestic market. As for investment activity, the data points to a decline as being likely in the coming months among businesses operating within Hungary.

Since 2005 the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) has undertaken the "young graduates in the private sector" research program which prepares an annual survey of Hungarian enterprises on the current and future employment characteristics of young graduates, employment trends, and the difficulties they face, including their salaries and their competencies, as well as the popularity and prestige of higher education institutions. In 2011 we approached 1,313 businesses. Of the total number of companies surveyed 30 percent have 50 or fewer employees, 19 percent employ between 50 to 100 people, and 24 percent have between 100-250 employees.

The latest results show that more companies still prefer to recruit graduates as opposed to those thinking about downsizing; also, the number of graduates for hire is more than those affected by proposed redundancies, therefore we can say that Hungary doesn’t have an oversupply of graduates. Companies with 20 or more employees make use of more than 95 percent of graduates, and also employ 42 percent of fresh graduates. The 2011 results suggest that in 2012 a significant increase is expected in the demand for the qualifications of an engineer, such as electrical, mechanical, construction or manufacturing technology engineers. Those least in demand are those who work in tourism, finance, and logistics while graduates in jobs that don’t require specific knowledge and general assistant jobs can expect a short-term decline in demand. According to the GVI prestige rankings, in terms of those offering economic courses the Faculty of Economics and the Faculty of Management Science at Corvinus University are in first place, whereas for technical courses the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and the Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology at the Budapest Technical and Economics University hold the top two places.

The purpose of the business climate research carried out by the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) is to provide an empirical study of business surveys conducted on a quarterly basis and analyze the situation of the Hungarian corporate sector, the current state of business, future prospects, and factors affecting the situation of companies. In addition to questions related to the business climate of companies, other issues and problems -- and the reactions of companies to these -- are explored which play an important role in the adaptability of enterprises in terms of financial status and development. October 2011 was the eighth in a series of survey data collected.

In late 2011 Hungarian companies faced very difficult economic circumstances, and as a result no significant improvement is expected for 2012. Currently, a major obstacle for companies to expand their production and marketing activities is a contraction of credit. This unfavourable process was already underway at the beginning of the economic crisis, and in 2011 access to credit became ever more difficult as banks were put into a difficult situation because of the early payoffs of foreign currency based loans and the bank tax.

In the October 2011 survey we asked participating companies about their borrowing habits and their expectations in light of the credit crunch. The results show that because of the deterioration of credit conditions over the past 6 months 7% of the companies surveyed postponed making investments. Changes in the conditions for accessing credit in 2011 were viewed very negatively by Hungarian business leaders. For 28% of respondents it has become more difficult in recent years to obtain a loan. In addition, respondents expect even more difficult conditions for 2012 than in 2011. As a result of these loan conditions, the vast majority of companies surveyed (81%) expressed a very pessimistic outlook and don’t plan to obtain a bank loan in 2012.

October 2011 was the twenty-eighth occasion of the IEER business climate survey. This is being realized in April and October each year by contacting more than 14,000 companies in cooperation with the regional Chambers. This is the most extensive business climate survey of its kind in Hungary. This research is an integral part of the European business climate survey fulfilled by Eurochambers covering 14 million ventures. In October of this year 1,926 companies filled out our questionnaire – our study was based on these responses from company executives.

The results show that Hungarian enterprises have arrived at a new turning-point: in the autumn of 2011 the recovery, which had been on an upward trend since October 2009, came to an end and the business climate index, which depicts the current situation and expectations of comapanies, worsened again significantly. While the IEER Business Climate Index remained in positive territory, it nevertheless declined considerably from +16.8 points to +1.3 points. The IEER Uncertainty Index hasn’t changed significantly since April and it remains at a high level.

The economic crisis has strongly affected all sectors; the construction industry is especially exposed to the effects of the economic crisis. This sector has so far not shown any signs of recovery.

Unfavourable short-term expectations indicate that Hungarian enterprises anticipate a further deepening of the crisis rather than improvement in the first half of 2012.

For the twenty seventh time the SME Outlook, a joint research project of the IEER, the Observatory (Figyelő) and the Volksbank, examined in July 2011 the Hungarian small and medium enterprise sector, its financial position, prospects, and the factors that influence an individual company's business position. In addition to questions related to the current business situation, current topics and issues -- and the corporate responses to these -- are analyzed which, in turn, have an important role to play in this sector’s adaptability, financial standing and development.

The SME Business Climate Index only partially reflects the less favourable macroeconomic situation of the second quarter of 2011 as compared to the first: of all current business situation indicators only production levels and stock orders decreased while all others were able to rise. In addition, all indicators – with the exception of stock orders and production level indicators – achieved higher scores in the second quarter of 2011 than a year earlier. Despite the ambivalent assessment of the current situation, the short-term expectations of small and medium enterprises are almost uniformly negative toward the changes in the summer of 2011: each indicator has deteriorated, the expected business situation assessment being the only exception. In light of all this, the SME Business Climate Index fell again: whereas in January it was 12.7% and in April was 10.1%, in July it reached only 6.7%. The SME Uncertainty Index somewhat decreased (0.432) compared to its first quarter peak (0.451), indicating a decrease in the diversity of opinions with respect to the assessment of the current and expected business situation of small and medium businesses, that is, the deteriorating business climate is becoming clearly perceivable to all companies.