Contents:

• Internet usage among Hungarian SMEs
• Growth in the Eurozone after the 2008 crisis – theoretical aspects
• International trends

In the following short analysis the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) examines the factors determining corporate borrowing and willingness to invest in Hungary. In the recent years several policies aimed to stimulate borrowing activity among Hungarian companies such as the reduction and the continuously low level of the central bank’s base rate or the Growth Loan program announced by the Hungarian National Bank. In our analysis three factors influencing the willingness to invest are examined: (i) interest margin and the development of interest rate environment, (ii) the quality of institutional and regulatory environment and (iii) the business climate and expectations of companies. Despite the policies implemented by the Hungarian National Bank interest margin is relatively high in Hungary in regional comparison making it difficult for companies to access financial resources. The uncertainty of institutional environment can make market players cautious as well. Business climate however, shows positive prospects, which means that business outlook does not explain the low demand for loans. In the future the reduction of interest margin, the improvement of institutional environment and competitiveness could have a positive effect on corporate borrowing and investments.

In its analysis the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research examined the practices relating to internet usage among domestic small and medium sized companies. The analysis is based on the data of the January 2017 SME Outlook survey of 300 small and medium enterprises that have at least 20 employees. Beside the most general uses (maintaining contact with clients, maintaining an own website, administration) the Hungarian SMEs mostly use the internet to seek information. Among larger companies, among those that have foreign ownership, and among those of the commerce and manufacturing sector internet usage is more prevalent than in the case of other types of companies. 84 percent of the SMEs have an own website and these are mainly maintained by a professional. A clear evidence of the importance of internet usage among domestic companies is that 90 percent of them claim that if the internet did not work at their company for a week, it would mean a serious problem for the functioning of their businesses. At the same time however, most of the responding companies invest less than 1 percent of their income in purchasing and maintaining IT devices.

Contents:

• Results of the IEER SME Outlook Survey January 2017

• The risks and possible effects of a U.S.–Chinese trade war

• International trends

The results of the latest IEER SME Outlook business climate survey reveal that the business confidence slightly decreased compared to the previous quarter: the Business Climate Index fell from 28 to 25 points. The value of the index was 25 points in January 2016.

The Uncertainty Index is at a current level of 38 points, which is the same as in the previous quarter. The value of the Uncertainty Index indicates that the current trend is not uniform within the private sector, and that it will continue to be confined to one part of the economy and will not be felt by all small and medium sized companies.

In sum, we can assess that the Business Climate Index after the peak (33 points) in April 2016 dropped to 27 points in July 2016 and it was 28 points in October 2016, now a decrease (25 points) occurred again.

The results of the latest quarterly business climate survey reveal that the economic condition remains the same as that in the previous quarter: the IEER Quarterly Business Climate Index is 30.5 points, and it was 30.4 points in October 2016. The value of the indicator was 30.5 points in July 2016, that is, the last three quarters are characterized by the stagnation of the Business Climate Index. (The Business Climate Index was 31.7 points in the same period of the previous year.)

The Uncertainty Index is at a current level of 36 points, which is slightly higher than in the previous quarter (it was 35 points in October 2016). The value of the Uncertainty Index indicates that the current trend is not uniform within the private sector, and that it will continue to be confined to one part of the economy and will not be felt by all companies.

In sum, we can assess that the level of business climate is still favourable in January 2017, however, there were no improvement compared to October 2016, the value of the index stagnated.

In its analysis the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) examined the perception of labor shortage among Hungarian companies. The analysis is based on the data of the October 2016 Business Climate Survey of 3185 companies among which 2980 answered questions related to recruiting difficulties, and labor and skill shortage. The analysis also covers how recruiting difficulties and expected investments, stock orders, and plans of salary increase are related. The results show that a growing number of Hungarian companies consider recruiting difficulties and labor shortage as an obstacle to business activity and two thirds of them expect that the problems related to this are going to worsen in 2017. The most prevalent problem mentioned by the companies is the recruitment of senior employees. Plans of salary increase and recruiting difficulties are positively related showing that salary increase is a possible way of adaptation to labor shortage among the Hungarian companies.

Contents:

• Main results of IEER’s Short-Term Labour Market Outlook for 2017

• Economic Forecasts for 2017

• International trends

The 38^th wave of the IEER Business Climate Survey was conducted in October 2016. This is the largest business climate survey in Hungary with regard to the number of participating companies. This year 3185 managers responded to the questionnaire on their business climate and short-term business expectations. The surveyed companies are representative to the Hungarian business sector in terms of economic performance, region and sector distribution. This analysis summarizes the results of the October 2016 survey. According to the new results of the IEER Business Climate Survey the IEER Business Climate Index decreased to +48 points in October 2016 from +49 points in April 2016, which is the second highest value in the history of the survey. Companies are still very positive about their current business climate, however, it seems that the continuing upward trend since October 2012 is broken. This is due to the fact that the expectations on investments (especially construction and machinery investments), profitability and stock orders are slightly more pessimistic than in the previous period. The value of the Uncertainty Index has increased by one point (October 2016: 48 points) compared to April 2016. This refers to the fact that the difference between the evaluations of the enterprises has not changed compared to the previous period.

The following summary comprises the latest results gained from the largest representative survey series on the Hungarian labour market. During the study 6835 company leaders’ answers on employment, on the company’s business situation, and on the company’s future expectations were registered and analyzed. The history of the survey series targeting short-term expectations of the labour market goes back to the years following the regime change of 1989-90 in Hungary. The latest survey in this research program took place between September 7 and October 14, 2016 as the ninth occasion of the collaboration between the Hungarian Ministry for National Economy and the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) to forecast the short-term economic prospects of the private sector, and to review corporations’ labour market decisions in an empirical study.