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24 of October, 2014Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

The latest study from HCCI IEER examined the predictive strength of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). Concerning the direction of change of industrial production, PMI forecasts are more accurate in the case of growth while in the case of decline its forecasts are less accurate. However when examining the extent of changes, it can be seen that t+3 months changes in the values of industrial production are significantly connected to the changes in the PMI.

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22 of October, 2014Research
Results of the IEER SME Outlook Survey October 2014

Results of the IEER SME Outlook Survey October 2014

The HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) SME Outlook business climate survey in October 2014 shows that the level of business confidence declined significantly compared to the previous quarter. The Business Climate Index declined to 9 points from the 18 points measured in July. This severed the improving trend observed since the beginning of 2014. However, it is important to note that the index is still significantly higher than it was last year in the same period (2 points). The Uncertainty Index is at 36 points level, which is one point lower than its value in July, so the uncertainty seems to stagnate after the increase in the beginning of the year. The 36 points level is slightly higher than the level measured last year (31 points in October 2013), but lower than the level measured two years ago (44 points in October, 2012). This suggests that the deterioration in business expectations is not universal and that it only concerns a part of the business community.

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2 of October, 2014Research
How Good is the Purchasing Managers' Index at Forecasting?

The latest GVI study examined the predictive ability of the Purchasing Managers Index. PMI forecasts are more accurate in forecasting a growth in industrial production volume as opposed to a decline. However, upon examining the extent of these changes, a significant correlation can be seen in the changes to the PMI and changes in industrial production three months later.

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23 of September, 2014Research
Primary School Children's Interest in Further Education and Career Choices

The study examined pre-career, seventh-grade primary school children's interest in further education and career choices. The results are based on the results of the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (HCCI) national career guidance study.

Two major groups stood out among seventh grade students: white-collar and blue-collar. The former are more independent, more diligent in learning, and more skilled at intellectual tasks and solving puzzles, but are less talented of practical tasks.This group tends to strive for attainment of higher education, even to obtain a degree and a white-collar profession. Children from the other group are interested in home improvement, repair, and the world of machines, and are less receptive to learning, are more inclined to solve school tasks in groups, and are regarded as less independent. The latter group of young people takes on vocational careers.

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20 of September, 2014Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

The HCCI Economic and Enterprise Research Institute (GVI) July 2014 edition of SME Perspectives showed that the level of business confidence within the domestic SME sector continued to improve compared to that seen in the previous quarter, thus we have three consecutive quarters in which an improving business climate was detected. Since the indicators showed that business confidence in the second quarter 2014 will continue the improvement apparent since the last quarter of 2013, this represents the best level in the history of the research, that is, the GVI SME Perspectives Business Climate Indicator has reached the best level since 2005. In addition, the uncertainty index value indicates that the current trend is not uniform in the business sector, therefore the recovery will continue to be confined to only one part of the economy and is not apparent for all companies.

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20 of August, 2014Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

The HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) business climate survey in July 2014 shows that the level of business confidence in Hungary continued to improve compared to that seen in the previous quarter, and that for three consecutive quarters a rising business confidence was detected. Since the indicators show that business confidence in the second quarter of 2014 continues the improvement apparent since the last quarter of 2013, it has thus reached the best level in the history of the IEER Quarterly Business Climate Index, that is, since 2010. In addition, the value of the Uncertainty Index indicates that the current trend is not uniform within the private sector, and that the recovery will continue to be confined to one part of the economy and will not be felt by all companies.

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14 of August, 2014Research
SME Outlook (July 2014)

The HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) business climate survey in July 2014 shows that the level of business confidence in Hungary continued to improve compared to that seen in the previous quarter, and that for three consecutive quarters a rising business confidence was detected. The IEER Quarterly Business Climate Index rose from the April level of 10 points to 18 points. The current 18 points is the highest level recorded since the beginning of the research (2005) and the last time a similar level was reached was at the beginning of 2011 (in January 2011 it reached 16 points). The Uncertainty Index level of 35 points is one point lower than the value in April; this indicates stagnation in uncertainty following a sharp rise at the beginning of the year. The current level is below the values recorded one or two years before (in July 2013 it was 37 points; in July 2012 it was 42 points). In addition, the value of the Uncertainty Index indicates that the current trend is not uniform within the private sector, and that the recovery will continue to be confined to one part of the economy and will not be felt by all companies.

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6 of August, 2014Research
Which are the poorest and richest regions in Hungary?

Social and economic developments after the regime change in 1989 have completely transformed our country. In many ways, Hungary was divided into two parts. The advanced, more developed area is increasingly linked to the more developed parts of the EU in all aspects and is an economically and socially emerging area, comprising of the capital city and its environs as well as the north-western part of the country. By contrast, all other parts of the country are increasingly separated from this developed region, and thus also the European average. To further awareness of this situation the HCCI IEER prepared the social and economic profiles of Hungary's regions in 2013 in which the development path of individual regions was clearly shown. In this analysis, based on the latest available data (2007-2012), the differences in the state of development of the 198 Hungarian statistical districts were examined. We present maps showing development on a statistical district scale. The analysis focuses on the regional differences of certain processes and phenomena, and provides an answer to the question of which are the most developed and most underdeveloped regions of our country.

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23 of July, 2014Research
An increasing number of Hungarian students apply to British universities

Between 2006 and 2013 the number of Hungarian high school graduates applying to British universities increased significantly, by nearly 2.7-fold, while other Visegrad countries were characterized by much lower growth rates. Besides, the research of IEER examining the prospects for further studies also reveals that regional disparities in further education are discernible within Hungary. Children from the underdeveloped Northern and Great Plains regions usually don't apply for universities in Budapest or abroad, whereas in the region of Central Hungary students most often choose the most prestigious universities of Budapest. The study was conducted on graduating students at thirty Hungarian state high schools; the results are based on 704 responses.

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20 of July, 2014Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

What difficulties are facing companies that want to invest in Hungary today? What is the impact on the investment climate of the Growth Loan Program (NHP)? These and other questions are examined in a research conducted by IEER, in which 2,600 company managers were interviewed. The answers showed that the NHP program itself does not increase the appetite for investments, as this program is unable to remedy the negative effects arising from the demand side nor the institutional environment of uncertainty. As far as company managers are concerned, these are the most inhibiting factors.

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