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23 of March, 2015Research
Loans and the Loans for Growth Program (NHP) at Hungarian SMEs

Within the framework of the “SME Outlook” research, since January 2005 the HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) conducts a quarterly analysis of the situation of small and medium sized enterprises, their short-term prospects, as well as the economic and institutional factors affecting this business group. For this project a total of 300 companies operating within the fields of manufacturing, construction and services are surveyed and the data is analysed in every quarter. The structure of the sample remains the same from quarter to quarter, with the companies surveyed representing the economic performance and sector distribution of small and medium sized enterprises in Hungary.

On June 1, 2013, the National Bank of Hungary launched the Loans for Growth Program (NHP), albeit the details of the program had been known several months earlier. For the October 2014 SME Outlook survey the leaders of small and medium-sized enterprises were asked about bank loans and the NHP Program by the IEER.

The results show that 56% of small and medium-sized enterprises have some form of bank loan. The most common type of credit is working capital loan (including bank loans). Companies hold mostly forint-denominated loans.

Euro-based loan is the most common foreign currency loan and mainly used by export-oriented companies, companies in the manufacturing sector and medium-sized firms.

Every fifth company among SMEs have applied for loan under the Loans for Growth Program (NHP). More than half of the companies were interested in working capital loans. Every second company applied for a loan up to 50 million forints. The overall opinion of SMEs is that there are no major changes in the terms of access to loans during the period 2013 and 2014.

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27 of February, 2015Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

Within the framework of the “SME Outlook” research, since January 2005 the HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) conducts a quarterly analysis of the situation of small and medium sized enterprises, their short-term prospects, as well as the economic and institutional factors affecting this business group. For this project a total of 300 companies operating within the fields of manufacturing, construction and services are surveyed and the data is analysed in every quarter. The structure of the sample remains the same from quarter to quarter, with the companies surveyed representing the economic performance and sector distribution of small and medium sized enterprises in Hungary.

On June 1, 2013, the National Bank of Hungary launched the Loans for Growth Program (NHP), albeit the details of the program had been known several months earlier. For the October 2014 SME Outlook survey the leaders of small and medium-sized enterprises were asked about bank loans and the NHP Program by the IEER.

The results show that 56% of small and medium-sized enterprises have some form of bank loan. The most common type of credit is working capital loan (including bank loans). Companies hold mostly forint-denominated loans.

Euro-based loan is the most common foreign currency loan and mainly used by export-oriented companies, companies in the manufacturing sector and medium-sized firms.

Every fifth company among SMEs have applied for loan under the Loans for Growth Program (NHP). More than half of the companies were interested in working capital loans. Every second company applied for a loan up to 50 million forints. The overall opinion of SMEs is that there are no major changes in the terms of access to loans during the period 2013 and 2014.

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10 of February, 2015Research
Results of the IEER Quarterly Business Climate Survey January 2015

Results of the IEER Quarterly Business Climate Survey January 2015

The 2015 IEER Quarterly Business Climate Survey showed that the level of business confidence in Hungary significantly improved compared to the previous quarter. The IEER Quarterly Business Climate indicator rose from 10 points to 19 points. This value is much higher than the one measured in last year in January (8 points). The value of Uncertainty index stands at a 35-point level, which conforms to the value in October. This result shows a stagnation in the level of uncertainty. The 35-point level is higher than the value of the index last year (it stood at 32 points in January 2014). The value of the uncertainty indicator suggests that the current tendency is not universal and that it only concerns a part of the business community.

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5 of February, 2015Research
Results of the IEER SME Outlook Survey January 2015

Results of the IEER SME Outlook Survey January 2015

The HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) SME Outlook business climate survey in January 2015 shows that after the decline observed in the previous quarter the level of business confidence improved again. The Business Climate Index rose to 16 points from the 9 points measured in October. The index is also higher than it was in last January (9 points). The Uncertainty Index is at 35 points level, which is one point lower than its value in October, so the uncertainty seems to stagnate. The 35 points level is slightly higher than the level measured last year (33 points in January 2014), but lower than the level measured two years ago (41 points in January, 2013). The value of the Uncertainty Index suggests that the current tendency is not universal and that it only concerns a part of the business community, others do not perceive it yet.

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30 of January, 2015Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

The following brief analysis examines what factors local businesses consider as their performance and success. The analysis was based on the database of the IEER April 2014 Business Climate Survey, which is Hungary’s largest company-wide survey of its kind. The April survey is based on the responses of 2,606 company executives. The sample was made up of 58% micro enterprises (less than 10 people), 17% of small businesses (between 10-49 persons), 16% of medium-sized enterprises (between 50-249 persons), and 10% of large enterprises (250 persons and above). Thus, our study primarily applies to micro-enterprises.

Our results show that the majority of domestic enterprises are proud of the positive characteristics (e.g. quality, uniqueness) of their products and services. The second most common response was that entrepreneurs considered the very survival of their company as a major success. A majority of respondents were proud that they managed to retain customers or attract new ones, and the fact that customers were satisfied with their work. Nearly one in ten respondents pointed out that they managed to maintain or increase staff numbers. Also, nearly one-tenth of interviewees viewed as one of their major achievements the fact that revenue remained the same or even increased.

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30 of January, 2015Research
The implementation of wage compensation in the private sector

The wage compensation policy helped to offset the negative effect on employment of expected wage increases. The IEER study presents the effects on employment due to the legislative changes of 2012 using data from the National Labour Centre’s Wage Survey and the Hungarian Labor Market Forecast.

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31 of December, 2014Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

The following brief analysis summarizes the characteristics (economic sector, company size, ownership structure and region) of firms with student apprentices contracted for training purposes. In addition, we present the recruitment intentions of the above mentioned companies for 2015 as well, from which the trend in the demand for apprentices can be inferred. The research is based on data from the 2010-2014 IEER Short-term labor market forecast study, which annually contains information from about 7,000 companies.

Based on these results, we can say that most of the firms with student apprentices contracted for training purposes are industrial companies. In addition, a relatively large number of apprentices are employed by companies that do not have foreign capital or which are located in the central region of Hungary. Results on recruitment intentions indicate that most firms with student apprentices contracted for training purposes don’t plan to change their employee numbers in 2015, therefore it is expected that the demand for student apprentices is not going to change either. Among those companies planning recruitment changes, the percentage of those that plan to increase staff is higher than those contemplating a reduction in every year between 2010 and 2014.

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28 of November, 2014Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

October 2014 was the thirty-fourth occasion of the business climate survey of HCCI Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER), which is Hungary’s largest business climate survey. This year's October survey is based on the responses of 2,853 company managers. The survey results show the business situation and the short-term expectations of managers. The following analysis summarizes the results of the October survey based on a representative sample by economic sectors, regions and number of employees. Compared to the 2012 recession the results confirm that in 2014 a turnaround occurred and a further improvement of the business climate is anticipated. The Hungarian firms’ business expectations improved once again after the rise of last year, indicating a more favourable business climate compared to the previous half year.

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5 of November, 2014Research
Results of the IEER Quarterly Business Climate Survey October 2014

Results of the IEER Quarterly Business Climate Survey October 2014

Since 2010 the IEER assesses on a quarterly basis the business expectations of Hungarian enterprises using a sample of 400 companies. In October 2014, the survey showed that the level of business confidence deteriorated sharply compared to the previous quarter. This severed the improving trend observed since October last year. The IEER Quarterly Business Climate indicators in July fell from 18 points to 10 points, but was still higher than the level measured a year ago (in October 2013 it was 5 points). The value of the Uncertainty Index was at a 35-point level, which conforms to the value in July. This suggests that the deterioration in business expectations is not universal and that it only concerns a part of the business community.

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24 of October, 2014Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

The latest study from HCCI IEER examined the predictive strength of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). Concerning the direction of change of industrial production, PMI forecasts are more accurate in the case of growth while in the case of decline its forecasts are less accurate. However when examining the extent of changes, it can be seen that t+3 months changes in the values of industrial production are significantly connected to the changes in the PMI.

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