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  • Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

    Contents: IEER quarterly business climate survey results, April 2018 The effects of digitalisation on inflation International trends

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1 of July, 2011Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

In April 2011 for the twenty-seventh time the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (MKIK GVI) conducted its business climate survey, in where 14,000 companies are examined biannually (April and October) with the assistance of regional commercial chambers. This is the largest and most comprehensive survey of its kind within Hungary, and is part of the Eurochambres business climate survey of 14 million companies as well. Based on the number of responses received, 1,803 business managers replied to our questionnaire in April.

In the April 2011 survey, we recorded the attitudes and opinions of managers toward the New Széchenyi Plan (USzT), a framework program for tender opportunities. The results show that 78% of respondents are familiar with the USzT, yet only 43% plan to use it. Familiarity with the USzT is very similar by different parameters of the companies, and we can say that most domestically owned enterprises are aware of the program and that most of these companies are intending to apply for tenders within the auspices of the USzT.

Slightly more than half of our respondents applied for public and EU tenders in the last five years, with large companies being the most active. The data suggest that the proportion of successful tenders increases with company size. As for the Széchenyi Card Program, 16% of the respondents presently take part. Among the examined companies this program is most widespread among small enterprises of ten employees or less and construction firms.

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1 of June, 2011Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

The joint research efforts of SME Panorama, the Monitor, the Economic and Enterprise Research Institute (GVI) and the Volksbank have set a target of making available, on a quarterly basis, corporate empirical surveys based on the study and analysis of Hungarian small and medium enterprises (SMEs) -- their financial position, prospects and the factors affecting their businesses. A government proposal to the Hungarian National Assembly in 2011 substantially changed personal taxation in several important ways. The expectation was that no one would be worse off with the introduction of the new system; however, several studies pointed out that not everyone will be positively affected by this change. The aim of the MKIK GVI study is to illustrate the proportion of SME workers adversely affected by the introduction of a flat personal income tax in 2011, as well as show which employees were most affected by the law. A third aspect will be an examination of how the companies responded to the changes in personal income, that is, what adjustments were observable until April 2011, when the survey was completed.

The results show that the gross wages of employees at 35 percent of the companies surveyed has not changed in 2011, and declined for 1 percent of SMEs. A majority of businesses in turn raised wages: 27 percent of companies raised wages by less than 5 percent while 36 percent raised wages over 5 percent. The wage rate together with a company's business situation and outlook for the future are significantly related: a favorable business outlook means that a higher wage increase will be more likely. The results found that 82 percent of SMEs have workers whose real incomes fell as a result of the tax system changes introduced in 2011. For those businesses that are entirely Hungarian owned an average of 53% of workers are adversely affected by the new income tax law, while at entirely foreign-owned companies it’s only about 36%.

The changes in personal income tax rules may lead to the beginning of different adaptation strategies by companies. 52 percent of companies claim to fully compensate workers for lost wages, while another 19 percent claim to only partially offset lost wages. The remaining 29 percent, however, are unable to compensate their workers at all for the loss of income. Thus, companies in a favorable business position are able to wholly or partially offset the loss of wages, while those in an unfavorable financial situation are typically unable to compensate their workers for a loss of income.

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26 of May, 2011Research
Activity of Hungarian Arbitration Boards in 2010

Arbitration Boards - operated by the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry - are out-of-court bodies that are responsible for the settlement of consumer disputes.

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25 of May, 2011Research
Activity of Hungarian Arbitration Boards in 2009

Arbitration Boards - operated by the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry - are out-of-court bodies that are responsible for the settlement of consumer disputes.

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24 of May, 2011Research
Court of Justice (2007)

IEER conducted a survey – between 3 and 7 September 2007 – among enterprises about their opinions on the legal settlement options between enterprises and on the working processes of Hungarian tribunals. We analysed the answers – sent back by post, e-mail, fax or online format – of 321 enterprises. In addition, we used telephone queries with legal representatives of 50 large companies. On this research, IEER worked together with the Supreme Court of Hungary and the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

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24 of May, 2011Research
Analysis of the Hungarian Court of Arbitration's operating statistics (2009)

The Hungarian Court of Arbitration - operated by the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry – is one important institute of legal certainty in Hungary. In our recent analysis, we are measuring the average time of the judgement process using data from 2006–2008. Results show that litigation process in the Hungarian Court of Arbitration do not exceed more than a year in the majority of cases. Moreover, there is no correlation between the importance of cases (measured by pecuniary value) and the litigation time.

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17 of May, 2011Research
Vocational School Research Program – 2011

This research program aims helping the regional development and training committees (RFKB – in Hungarian) in order to establish a quota of the maximum number of different vocational trainings. The research is based on IEER's own large-sample empiric survey from 2011. The survey covered the opinion of different agents of the labor demand such as micro-, small-, medium-, and large sized enterprises, and it also aimed to find out the opportunities that a recent graduate has on the labor market. In the analysis, we also evaluated the expected labour demand for vocational school graduates and compared the results to the expected number of recent graduates in 2014.

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1 of May, 2011Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

It was the 27th occasion in April 2011 when the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (HCCI IEER) carried out its business climate survey. This is being realized in April and October each year by contacting more than 14.000 companies in cooperation with the regional Chambers. In Hungary this is considered to be the most extensive business climate survey involving the highest number of companies. It is also a part of the European business climate survey fulfilled by Eurochambers covering 14 million ventures. From among the companies contacted 1803 CEOs have filled out our questionnaires – our research results are based on their responses.

According to our April 2011 database the amelioration of business climate has been further continuing on since October 2009. The IEER Business Climate Index /BCI/ showed an improvement in comparison with the past six months: from the October +10,4 value a change to +16,8 points could be observed. The value of the IEER Uncertainty Index has not changed compared to the outcome of our October research: it is still rather high being at the level of 45,5 points. Consequently as per our results the improvement of business climate has been steadily developing in the Hungarian enterprise sector although the uncertainty factor related to the expectations and to the judgement of business situation can still be considered as significant. On long-term bases – in view of the April data of the previous years – this year’s outcome indicates improvement as well. However, the fact that the level of our business climate index recently reached is still inferior to that of the period 1998 – 2002 is to be taken into account. Within the Hungarian economy the recovery process from the crisis is still on but is rather slow in respect of the economic events of the last three years.

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1 of April, 2011Research
Business Climate 1/2011 (April)

The Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research conducts a survey on the business climate among Hungarian enterprises since 1998. The survey relies on the answers of 1300-2000 managers and measures their opinion twice a year, every April and October and as such it gives the most extended sample of enterprises in Hungary among the similar business tendency surveys. Our research is part of an Eurochambres survey, all together involving more than 14 million enterprises to a European business tendency survey research program by now. In the past ten years, our findings seem to predict accurately the expected change in the GDP of Hungary. Our key findings had been used by OECD, IMF and the Hungarian government as well.

This time, our database consists the answers of 1803 enterprises. After the turning-point in October 2009, the business anticipations of Hungarian enterprises are continuously ameliorated: the indicators seem still to be in positive range even in comparison with last year. While the IEER Business Climate Index stayed at +10.4 last October, by April 2011 it reached +16.8. According to our results, the recession in the Hungarian economy is now over its nadir, there are improving business anticipations and business confidence. Although way out of recession has started in October 2009, the process is rather slow.

The IEER Uncertainty Index did not change over the last half a year; still stays at value 45.5 which is considered to be high. This means that there are still a significant number of enterprises without counting on the improvement of business climate.

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1 of April, 2011Research
IEER Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

The “Geography of Recession” research programme of the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (HCCI IEER), set the aim of analyzing the economic crisis from a regional point of view. Within this framework we provide detailed analyses on the changes of regional differences in the field of unemployment, layoffs and labour market quitting since the beginning of the economic crisis.

According to the latest figures, the amelioration that had started on the labour market in the first half year continued in the second half of 2010, although the degree of the improvement was very low. From May 2010 the registry showed relatively fewer job-seekers every month than in the previous year. On the basis of the survey of Hungarian Central Statistical Office it can be stated that though the number of employed increased and the number of unemployed decreased in the second half of 2010, these changes still do not mean a real breakthrough.

The regions of the north-western segment of the country having a more favourable economic position remained the winners of the upturn. In the micro-regions concentrating the export-oriented processing industry, the former downturn turned to a dynamic improvement. On the contrary, in the more backward southern and eastern regions the tendencies of unemployment have taken again an unfavourable turn in the winter months. Signs of any positive change are not discernible in the suburbia of the capital either: the number and the rate of job seekers is still increasing, though the rate does not even reach half of the national average. It seems that the capital’s labour market gives a belated response to cyclical fluctuations in the boom period as well.

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