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    31 of May, 2017Research
    Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

    Contents:

    • Students from the Visegrad Group at Austrian, German and British universities – 2002-2016
    • Social mobility of Hungary among the EU Member States
    • International trends
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    15 of May, 2017Research
    Results of the IEER Quarterly Business Climate Survey

    The results of the latest quarterly business climate survey reveal less favourable economic conditions compared to the previous quarter: the IEER Quarterly Business Climate decreased from 31 to 21 points. It means that the enterprises detect a turning point: we received at least 30 points in each quarter since January 2016, 21 points were measured for the last time in July 2015. (The Business Climate Index was 33 points in the same period of the previous year.)

    This decline is mainly due to the fact that businesses are evaluating the current profitability, stock order, business situation, and past six-month production levels more negatively than in January. In addition, expectations on the development of investments have become more pessimistic.

    The Uncertainty Index is at a current level of 35 points, which is slightly lower than in the previous quarter (it was 36 points in January 2017). The value of the Uncertainty Index indicates that the current trend is not uniform within the private sector, and that it will continue to be confined to one part of the economy and will not be felt by all companies.

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    8 of May, 2017Research
    Students from the Visegrad Group at Austrian, German, and British universities – 2002-2016

    In this brief analysis, the trends in the number of Hungarian students studying abroad at higher educational institutions are examined by using international statistical data. Results show that there were about 7500 Hungarian students participating in BA and Ma programmes at foreign colleges and universities both in 2014 and in 2015. Comparing the number of students participating in BA courses in Hungary to the number of students studying abroad it can be seen that not too many of them choose a foreign institution, but at the level of master’s programmes more students decide to quit the Hungarian higher educational system.

    This result could be interpreted as a deficiency in the Hungarian higher educational system, but at the same time it can be a sign of the high competitiveness of the Hungarian students internationally.

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    30 of April, 2017Research
    Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

    Contents:

    • Corporate credits in Hungary, 2012-2016
    • OECD recommendations for Hungarian economic growth
    • International trends
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    11 of April, 2017Research
    The Effects of Missing Imputation on a Composite Business Climate Index of Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research

    In this paper we attempt to examine whether it is feasible to impute missing data values or not regarding the Quarterly Business Climate Survey of Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research. This subject implies the assessment of the missing data mechanism of the business climate questions and thereby the discussion of the possible imputation methods. But as we do not have sufficient information for analysing the missing data mechanism yet and the aim of the survey is to indicate the changes in some macroeconomic tendencies, we attempt to examine the situation with the assumption that the missing data mechanism is random. This paper presents an evaluation of the effects of multiple imputation from the aspect of the correlation between the GDP growth and the Quarterly Business Climate Index.

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    31 of March, 2017Research
    Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

    Contents:

    • Internet usage among Hungarian SMEs
    • Growth in the Eurozone after the 2008 crisis – theoretical aspects
    • International trends
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    28 of February, 2017Research
    Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends

    In the February 2017 Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends results of the IEER SME Outlook Survey January 2017 are presented and the risks and possible effects of a U.S.–Chinese trade war are summarized.

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    9 of February, 2017Research
    Results of the IEER SME Outlook Survey January 2017

    The results of the latest IEER SME Outlook business climate survey reveal that the business confidence slightly decreased compared to the previous quarter: the Business Climate Index fell from 28 to 25 points. The value of the index was 25 points in January 2016.

    The Uncertainty Index is at a current level of 38 points, which is the same as in the previous quarter. The value of the Uncertainty Index indicates that the current trend is not uniform within the private sector, and that it will continue to be confined to one part of the economy and will not be felt by all small and medium sized companies.

    In sum, we can assess that the Business Climate Index after the peak (33 points) in April 2016 dropped to 27 points in July 2016 and it was 28 points in October 2016, now a decrease (25 points) occurred again.

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    7 of February, 2017Research
    Results of the IEER Quarterly Business Climate Survey January 2017

    The results of the latest quarterly business climate survey reveal that the economic condition remains the same as that in the previous quarter: the IEER Quarterly Business Climate Index is 30.5 points, and it was 30.4 points in October 2016. The value of the indicator was 30.5 points in July 2016, that is, the last three quarters are characterized by the stagnation of the Business Climate Index. (The Business Climate Index was 31.7 points in the same period of the previous year.)

    The Uncertainty Index is at a current level of 36 points, which is slightly higher than in the previous quarter (it was 35 points in October 2016). The value of the Uncertainty Index indicates that the current trend is not uniform within the private sector, and that it will continue to be confined to one part of the economy and will not be felt by all companies.

    In sum, we can assess that the level of business climate is still favourable in January 2017, however, there were no improvement compared to October 2016, the value of the index stagnated.

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    2 of February, 2017Research
    Business perception of labor shortage in Hungary

    In its analysis the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research (IEER) examined the perception of labor shortage among Hungarian companies. The analysis is based on the data of the October 2016 Business Climate Survey of 3185 companies among which 2980 answered questions related to recruiting difficulties, and labor and skill shortage. The analysis also covers how recruiting difficulties and expected investments, stock orders, and plans of salary increase are related. The results show that a growing number of Hungarian companies consider recruiting difficulties and labor shortage as an obstacle to business activity and two thirds of them expect that the problems related to this are going to worsen in 2017. The most prevalent problem mentioned by the companies is the recruitment of senior employees. Plans of salary increase and recruiting difficulties are positively related showing that salary increase is a possible way of adaptation to labor shortage among the Hungarian companies.

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