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At what stage are we in the Great Recession?

The figure illustrates the impact of the 2008 world financial crisis and the coronavirus epidemic in 2020 on the Hungarian and German economies compared to previous economic crises. The quarterly change in GDP since the start of the crisis is used as an indicator in comparison to the previous quarters.

The figure shows that the impact of the 2008 crisis on Hungarian and German GDP falls short of the effect of the transformational recession faced by Hungary from 1990 and also the decline in the first half of 1930 in the United States. On the other hand, the effect was similar to the crisis faced by Britain's GDP in 1930 and the oil price shock of 1979.

The coronavirus epidemic was characterized by a rapid fall and a strong rebound, so it is clear that its course is different to other crises.

The figure was inspired by the web page of the prestigious economic research institute, The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) at www.niesr.ac.uk.